Northeastern Syria, also known as A.A.N.E.S (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria) which was formally referred to as Rojava (West Kurdistan in Kurdish). Its name is only the tip of the iceburg when it comes to trying to understand the vast complexities of this very new Middle Eastern region. Much has been blogged already about Northeastern Syria and the social female led revolution that’s been happening over the last 7 or so years. But for a very brief history lesson;
Between 2012 and 2018, North Eastern Syria became one of the most hotly contested regions in the Middle East. Power shifted dramatically after Assad’s forces withdrew in 2012–2013, Kurdish militias and Syrian rebels filled the void. By early 2014, ISIS seized Raqqa and declared it the capital of its caliphate, controlling much of the northeast. From 2015 to 2017, the U.S. backed Syrian Democratic Forces pushed ISIS back, eventually capturing Raqqa in October 2017. By 2018, ISIS had lost nearly all territorial control in the region. This left the Syrian Democratic forces completely in control.
The SDF is a multi-ethnic, multi-religious fighting force. But it is majority Kurdish. the name is used as an umbrella term for the different militias that fought alongside each other against the Islamic State. Including The YPG (Peoples Protection Units) The YPJ (Women’s Protection Units) and various other smaller Arab militias. At its peak an estimated 10,000 women under the YPJ were fighting against ISIS. Because of this the current government is led with a strong feminist framework that all institutions now operate with compulsory co-leadership between men and women.
Now that the history’s out of the way, let’s talk about the present. A new Syrian government has formed, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under transitional leader Ahmed al-Sharaa. They overthrew the Assad regime after storming south from Idlib to Damascus reportedly without firing a single bullet. With that, the future of an independent northeastern region is now very much in question.
In an estimate as recent as 2025, 90% of Syria’s population lives below the poverty line, surviving on less than $2 a day. With that in mind, al-Saraa is now taking on the unenviable feat of trying to lift Syria out of the economic rut it’s been stuck in since the start of the millennium. Al-Sharaa has had to make certain concessions to Trump in order to have sanctions lifted, the lifting of which has just recently been announced.
The White House is demanding that in exchange Syria must; normalise relations with Israel, Ban Palestinian terrorist groups and more worryingly for the Autonomous state, Syria must take control over the detention camps across the North Eastern region, camps which mainly contain ex Islamic State prisoners. The region currently holds an estimated 12,000 confirmed ISIS prisoners. This number increases to almost 55,000 when you include women and children. Many of the children were born and have grown up in these facilities (estimated at almost 30 prisons)
It’s important to note that it isn’t just the US that’s calling on re-unification between the regions. Turkey is hell bent on dismantling an autonomous Kurdish presence on its borders. Edogan considers the YPG’s growing power along its border a major national security threat and has had troops invade parts of northern Syria to push them back. Turkey has a particular distaste for the the Kurdish lead group as it views the YPG and the PKK as two sides of the same terrorist coin, so to say.
With the population of Turkey being made up of around 15-20% Kurds. The fear is that if the Kurdish region is given any sense of legitimacy with continued independence, this could spark a war akin to that of the 1984-2012 PKK Conflict, which lead to the deaths of over 40,000 people and cost Turkey an estimated $450 billion in military costs and lost tourism.
With the US and Turkey both pressuring Syria to dissolve the Northern Syrian region, What do the citizens think of all this…? If you want to answer this question you have to first consider the ethnic make up of the area. Although there hasn’t been a consensus done of A.A.N.E.S. the estimated population is anywhere from 50% Arabs – 45% Kurdish with some estimates as high as 60% Arabs – 35% Kurdish. With the final 5% made up of Assyrians, Armenians, Turkmen, Chechens etc.
The problem this presents is a major split in opinion over the future of the region. Kurds want to retain autonomy while Arabs want to rejoin the Damascus government. The Kurds feel they have the right to retain an autonomous state, seeing as they played such a consequential role in defeating ISIS during the civil war. The Arabs on the other hand, don’t see it the same way. Many Arabs see the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria as Kurdish led rule in disguise. When Arabs are appointed to positions, many critics have argued these are merely token roles, with Kurds retaining key control behind the scenes.
So, where do we go from here? That’s the question facing not just the people of northeastern Syria, but the entire region. What happens when a revolutionary experiment in gender equality, ethnic inclusion, and bottom up governance collides with the harsh realities of international politics?
Whether the region continues to exist in any autonomous form, or is swallowed back into a centralised, Damascus-led Syrian state, will depend not only on military deals and political concessions, but on whether its people will choose peace after an almost unimaginable, war-riddled reality, or once again take up the fight for a future that is still uncertain. Either way, the next chapter is theirs to write, not anyone else’s (in theory)